Antonio Mele

London School of Economics and Financial Markets Group

London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK

E-mail: a.mele@lse.ac.uk


 

Keywords: asset markets and the business cycle; stock market volatility; interest rates and credit markets; information networks in financial markets; capital markets under Knightian uncertainty and asymmetric information; financial econometrics.
 



Published work

Working papers and work in progress

Lecture Notes
 


Published work

"Information Linkages and Correlated Trading," Review of Financial Studies 23, 203-246 (2010) (with P. Colla) download the unabridged version

Asset markets in the presence of information networks among agents -- theory piece

"Simulated Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies 76, 413-450 (2009) (with F. Altissimo) download the unabridged appendix

A new estimator that achieves the same asymptotic efficiency as maximum likelihood -- theory piece, with finance in view

"Asymmetric Stock Market Volatility and the Cyclical Behavior of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial Economics 86, 446-478 (2007) download a previous version titled "Rational Stock Market Fluctuations"

Why is stock market volatility countercyclical? -- theory piece

"Approximating Volatility Diffusions with CEV-ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30, 931-966 (2006) (with F. Fornari) 

A simple way to estimate/calibrate models with stochastic volatility -- applied piece

"Fundamental Properties of Bond Prices in Models of the Short-Term Rate," Review of Financial Studies 16, 679-716 (2003) download the unabridged version

Volatility, and the yield curve -- theory piece

"Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices using GARCH Models as Diffusion Approximations," Journal of Empirical Finance 8, 83-110 (2001) (with F. Fornari)

Derives market risk-aversion from the price of derivatives, in the presence of stochastic volatility -- applied piece

"Volatility Smiles and the Information Content of News, " Applied Financial Economics 11, 179-186 (2001) (with F. Fornari)

Event studies for implied vols -- applied piece

Book: Stochastic Volatility in Financial Markets--Crossing the Bridge to Continuous Time Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers (2000), 145 pages (with F. Fornari) download chapter 1

The title says it all

Research undertaken prior to my PhD

Book: Dynamiques non linéaires, volatilité et équilibre (in French) Paris: Editions Economica (1998), 212 pages download chapter 5

"Sign and Volatility Switching ARCH Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics 12, 49-65 (1997) (with F. Fornari)

"Weak Convergence and Distributional Assumptions for a General Class of Non Linear ARCH Models," Econometric Reviews 16, 205-227 (1997) (with F. Fornari)

"Asymmetries and Non-Linearities in the Economic Activity," Applied Financial Economics 7, 203-206 (1997) (with F. Fornari)

"Modeling the Changing Asymmetry of Conditional Variances," Economics Letters 50, 197-203 (1996) (with F. Fornari)

"Continuous Time Conditionally Heteroskedastic Models: Theory with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economic Notes 24, 327-352 (1995)

"A Stochastic Variance Model For Absolute Returns," Economics Letters 46, 211-214 (1994) (with F. Fornari)

"A Two Factor Arbitrage Model with Optimal Filtering Behavior," Statistica 54, 293-312 (1994) (with F. Fornari)

"Stochastic Behavior of Deterministic Utility Functions," Rivista internazionale di scienze economiche e commerciali 41, 1013-1031 (1994)
 

 


Working papers and work in progress  click here to main

"Uncertainty, Information Acquisition and Price Swings in Asset Markets" (with F. Sangiorgi) download slides

Aversion towards Knightian uncertainty leads asset markets with asymmetric information to undergo large fluctuations: crashes, rallies, media frenzies and history-dependent paths -- theory piece

"Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Volatility and Volatility Risk-Premiums" (with V. Corradi and W. Distaso) download slides

The volatility of aggregate stock market volatility ("vol of vol") relates to a business cycle factor.  Volatility risk-premia are strongly countercyclical -- applied piece

"Adding and Subtracting Black-Scholes: A New Approach to Approximating Derivative Prices in Continuous-Time Models" (with D. Kristensen)

A new method to compute derivative prices in models without a closed-form solution -- theory piece, with many applications

"Financial Volatility and Economic Activity" (with F. Fornari) download supplementary material  download slides  download AEA slides

Stock market volatility forecasts economic activity -- applied piece

"Understanding Stock Market Volatility: A Business Cycle Perspective" download a previous version

My own perspective on stock market volatility -- applied piece

"Aggregate Stock Market Risk Premia and Real Economic Activity"

Risk premia increase more in bad times than they decrease in good times. Empirical evidence in support of my theoretical research into stock market volatility -- applied piece

"Government Size and Asset Prices" (with F. Belo) work in progress

"Local Information Sharing in Oligopoly" (with P. Colla) work in progress

"Asset Prices Driven by Stochastic String Shocks" (with W. Distaso) work in progress

 

 


Lecture Notes   click here to main

"Lectures on Financial Economics"

"Lecture Notes on Fixed Income Markets"; "Tutorials & Exercises"

"Lecture Notes on Fixed Income Securities and Credit Markets"



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free counter and web stats